Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? (This is also known as consulting especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. Still, the racial wealth gap continues: Only 11 of them are black. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We do not only have common English names, but also uncommon ones that have unique origins and meanings. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million dollar lottery 9 times over your life again than you would have being born. A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull. Consider some of the contingencies and requirements for your existence as set forth by Mr. Binazir. Thats a pretty big number, I thought to myself. For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. When making recommendations, I sometimes use affiliate links. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. I would call that a personal relationship with God. The perfect deal in bridge is that each player receives all the cards in one suit. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. Get ready to have your socks blown off, ya beautiful miracle, you. I would caution anyone from drawing a religiously-minded conclusion from these probabilities and heres why: While the probability of any one of us existing is very low, the probability that 350 million humans existing in the United States is very high. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. What Does Jesus Mean When He Says We Must Be Salted with Fire. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Now lets say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? How fast does a laden fly fly? Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. The Art of Female Orgasm: Tue 21 June teleseminar with Nicole Daedone, Dating App-ocalypse: 10 Reasons to Delete Your Dating Apps Right Now, How can I best serve you? The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. In a 2011 HuffPost article, he set about calculating the likelihood of each of us being born. Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. Your email address will not be published. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. Its maddening to see people worry so much. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Then the probability of Mr. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. So the probability of your parents chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. Multply the volume of New Jerusalem by 77. Again, it is similar to the probability of winning the Loto: while my chances of winning are very small, the probability of someone (or someones) winning are much higher. To that, we could add the probability that the one sperm and the one egg met one another because she wasnt in the mood, but lets not split hairs here. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. By that definition, Ive just shown that you are a miracle, he wrote. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Our own galaxy, the Milky Way, has as many as 400 billion stars in it and at least 100 billion planets. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazirs Article on Probability of Being Born. The great mystery of our existence stretches back in time into the very heart and mind of God who has always known and loved us, has prepared for us and made a way for us. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a farfetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists. Its the probability of 2 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. They agree to within a factor of two! This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age -- going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. The Zen philosopher, Basho, once wrote, A flute with no holes, is not a flute. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Based on the data from the CDC . Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. Suitcases checked and standing side by side. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. (+ My podcast interview on raising your spirits), Staying Sane in Trying Times Seminars, Apr 22-25, WED FEB 19: The 5 Magic Questions What 5000 Womens Letters Reveal About Love & Dating, How often should you call him? If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Check out my course, The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough at the top of the page. June 5. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! A lovely day to you. was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. What impresses me is that at the moment our parents came together to form us, the Creator of the Universe stopped what He was doing to give, to each and every one of us, a soul unique to itself. 1/(100,000)(4 trillion)= 1/(105)(41012)= 1 in 4 x 1017, or one in 400 quadrillion. Or is it possible that they are underestimates of the true number? 7 distinct works Similar authors. Every beginning Is only a sequel, after all, and the book of events is always open halfway through. That probability is low but the presence of super-novae throughout the cosmos is not. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the waterin the middle of that life preserver. I would certainly add in (sadly) that there is the possibility of abortion or miscarriage, but even a simple analysis yields an astonishingly small probability. Also follow me on Instagram @RecovHer and visit my RecovHer YouTube Channel for more sober tools and tips. Miebakagh Fiberesima from Port Harcourt, Rivers State, NIGERIA. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazir's article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. Thus, my existence depends on a vast number of meetings going just right; if they hadnt I would never have been born. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. June 24, 2022 . If you need to flag this entry as abusive. If you shouldnt even be here, then what is the point of worrying? Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. Heres a thought experiment to help illustrate the unbelievably huge size of these numbers. Now lets get down to some of the biological details: each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. On one try.. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? You may think You say that to everyone!. Part of HuffPost Wellness. Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 102,685,000. In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. Marcus Aurelius offers wisdom on how to use this fact. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are., Buddhists have talked of the preciousness of this incarnation. : A definitive guide for smart women, How to Get Guys: The 6.5 Dating Phases of Men. There are only slightly more than 500 billionaires in America, making your odds of becoming one roughly one in 578,508. Which ones bigger? "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Step 1. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Whoa. Gamblers always play the odds; their lives revolve around probabilities, and that has led many into dark places. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Dr Ali Binazir is the author of the 'The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible', the highest-rated dating book on Amazon.co. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? (Just dont blow up your car trying to have the exhaust be blue smoke like I saw on that viral video, or set any forests on fire, lets keep it safe, kids.). On the Probability of Your Being Born.. The odds of becoming a millionaire in America are between 6.4% to 22.3% according to data from the Federal Reserve Boards Survey of Consumer Finances. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. When you do the math, which I didnt but Dr. Binazir did: That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion.. Step 4. This basically ZERO CHANCE of BEING BORN shows me that WE ALL DESERVE having an EQUAL PLACE on Earth! They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. Are they gross exaggerations? So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. To be more specific, its probably 1 in 102,640,000. 2023 The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers on this website. Astronomers estimate that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the observable Universe. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. The question is, how long will it take for the fly to bring the entire moon back to the earth? The answer, if my math is right, (assuming a mass of the moon of 7.34 x 10^22 kg), is about 7.34 x 10^34 years. For perspective on the size of those numbers, there are only 10x 80 elementary particles in the observable universe.). They each roll the dice and they all come up with. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people.